Performance

Outlook for 2009

Lloyd’s and Amlin: markets of choice

In addition to the general improvement in the rating environment for much of our business, we believe that we are in a position to be a market of choice for clients. Counterparty risk is at the forefront of many commercial risk managers’ minds. Therefore we expect that for large insurance placements there will be a trend towards placing in subscription markets, where insurers take a share of the insurance contract, rather than the whole contract being written by one company. The travails of a number of our large competitors, and the uncertainty of their futures, should accelerate that trend.

The Lloyd’s market is positioned well to take advantage of this trend if it emerges. It was the largest subscription market in the world in 2008 and was the second largest US surplus lines insurance market after AIG. Its capital position is robust, with the Central Fund at record levels. The rating agency ratings are strong and stable.

Amlin is a major Lloyd’s participant and importantly its rating for Syndicate 2001 from AM Best is a notch above the market rating as a whole. Equally, Amlin Bermuda has a robust level of capital and provides the Group with opportunities for growth. This should make us a preferred market. For example it was evident at 1 January that the share of client’s risk that was offered was increasing as clients were downsizing exposure to some of our larger competitors.